27.06.2003 03:12
CIVILIAN ARMY GENERAL

The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Yevhen Marchuk on June 25 received a new appointment as the Defense Minister of Ukraine. Marchuk is a self-sufficient figure to balance out the ambitions of army generals who claimed that office. In addition, that appointment has formally signified the partition between the Defense Minister s office and political showdown. This would have been the case if a person with a party affiliation had taken over the office.

At first glance, that appointment came as a bit of surprise. But it seems no more surprising than Yevhen Kyrylovych s previous appointment as the country s national security chief in the wake of the first round of presidential election in 1999. Then, [President] Kuchma expounded it thus: Never my opinions and Marchuk s differed . At the time Kuchma ranked Marchuk among the right-wing presidential hopefuls whose criticism of the head of state did not overstep the bounds if civility.

Marchuk s days as National Security and Defense Council Secretary coincided with

difficult times. Terror attacks against the U.S., military campaign in Afghanistan, Ukraine s decision to join NATO, the Kolchuga affair, the downing of a Russian Tu-154 passenger plane by a stray Ukrainian missile, Ukrainian hostages in the theater seizure drama in Moscow, the Iraqi crisis, the dispatching of an anti-chemical weapons unit to Kuwait and the decision to contribute an army battalion to the international stabilization force in Iraq all those matters required Kyiv to forge a well-balanced position with due regard for all of its foreign policy s east- and west-bound vectors. The decisions, that were later assessed as well-justified, took preparatory work precisely by the National Security and Defense Council and its chief. Though, today Marchuk is nonpolitical, and is under no obligation to any political forces. At the same time, his participation in the latest presidential race spells his being an independent political figure capable of generating ideas.

What to expect from Yevhen Marchuk as Defense Minister?

1. Marchuk will have to display a drive to step up stalled military reform. His predecessor in the office was criticized by the Supreme Commander [President Kuchma] precisely for poor performance of the Defense Ministry and the Armed Forces General Staff and inadequate pace of army reform. Marchuk is well aware of the status of the reform and the army situation. The National Security and Defense Council was directly involved in drafting amendments to the now effective National Security and Defense Concept and the State Program for Armed Forces Reform and Development. One can anticipate Marchuk putting forward certain initiatives related to tougher approaches to the optimization of the armed forces size and structure. Also, the defense planning and review assessment would be stepped up. That procedure -- that was originally scheduled for completion in 2004 -- is aimed to define the national armed forces prospective structure to bring it closer to NATO standards.

2. The Defense Ministry will have to formulate its approaches to the Military Doctrine and the State Program for Weapons Development. Both of the documents are critical for picking up an optimum defense strategy for this country. Marchuk s predecessors in the office were blamed for delaying the drafting of the documents, particularly the latter one. The former military command adhered to the principle: once there is no cash for military reform, why to be in a haste? More, the army downsizing without adequate financial support could bring about an outbreak of public anger. That kind of arguments has never been accepted by the National Security and Defense Council as well-justified, in that the Defense Ministry failed to provide the country s top officials with real figures, particularly calculations related to the cost of army downsizing and reforms. Once the Defense Minister, Marchuk will now be able to make decisions as to the optimum strategy.

3. Marchuk is well familiarized with backstage activities of force structures. He once run the SBU (Security Service) and was Prime Minister. So engagement with army generals is not going to be an entirely new job to him. But real success will depend on how efficient engagement with army generals will be, and on which principles the formation of a new team from among civilians will be based. Failing that, it is going to be fairly hard for Marchuk to tackle with the order of things existing within the Defense Ministry. This is what independent Ukraine s first civilian Defense Minister, Valeri Shmarov once failed to do, which cost him his office. Army generals had not accepted Shmarov. Marchuk, himself an army general, will have to create an efficient civilian apparatus to run the Defense Ministry, and succeed in the division of authority between the Defense Ministry and the Armed Forces General Staff. De-jure, the two have long had their duties divided between them. But with a military in the Defense Minister s office, the Defense Ministry and the Armed Forces General Staff were akin to Siamese twins. The possibility is not ruled out that it will be hard for Marchuk and [Chief of General Staff] Zatynayko whose approaches to management are different -- to find common ground. But is seems even more unlikely that Marchuk, when accepting the proposal to become a Defense Minister, had not discussed that issue with the head of state. If so, the Ukrainian army is likely to obtain a new chief of General Staff, as well.

4. (Valentyn Badrak, Serhiy Zgurets, Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies)